As the world continues to shift towards sustainable energy solutions, New Zealand is making quiet, smalls steps in harnessing the power of the sun. Unlike many other countries that have relied on incentives, the growth of New Zealand's solar industry has been driven solely by the forces of supply and demand.
While this might seem frustratingly slow for some, it has allowed the New Zealand solar market to develop a solid foundation. It hasn’t crumbled after subsidy rollbacks or encouraged cowboys to flood the market when the government starts flashing cash. Nonetheless, it’s had its challenges, but that’s for another day. For now, let’s peer into some numbers.
How many solar power systems are there in New Zealand?
As of June 30, 2024, there are 62,707 solar power systems installed in New Zealand, with a capacity of 447.5 MW—almost halfway to reaching a gigawatt, or as Doc Brown would say, "jigawatt."
| Year | The number of grid-connect solar power systems installed in New Zealand each year |
| 2014 | 3,253 |
| 2015 | 4,004 |
| 2016 | 4,325 |
| 2017 | 4,552 |
| 2018 | 4,499 |
| 2019 | 4,176 |
| 2020 | 4,471 |
| 2021 | 6,406 |
| 2022 | 9,344 |
| 2023 | 10,245 |
Is the market for solar power growing in New Zealand?
The pace of solar installation and size of the market has slowly accelerated over the last 10 years. To illustrate this, in 31 January 2021 there was 31,105 systems - so in just three and a half years the market has more than doubled.
The question of whether New Zealand would experience exponential growth in solar power adoption has long persisted. However, over the past few years, this growth has finally become apparent.
There was a boost to the solar industry towards the end of the COVID lockdown period, with people spending more time at home, home power bills going up, and for many, extra cash to spend.
What is the average residential solar power system size installed?
The average system size is now 4.9kW, which is roughly eleven solar panels. Compare this to between 2013 and 2019, when the average installed system size moseyed around the 3.5kW mark, with a steady incline in system sizes since 2019.
This post-2019 increase in size is due to solar panels becoming cheaper and people adding home batteries and EVs, which require more generation.
How many solar battery systems are installed in New Zealand?
The stats for home batteries has only started being collected as of November 2023, but in the these few short months, there has already been 6,981 battery installations recorded.
Image: New Zealand's first utility-scale battery energy storage system - 35MWh connected to WEL Networks’ 33 kV network, installed by Infratec
How does New Zealand’s amount of solar power system stack up to other countries?
Those of us in the New Zealand solar industry occasionally indulge in self-torture by comparing our installation numbers with Australia's. Let's pore over the numbers once more.
As of March 2024, there are over 3.76 million solar power systems installed in Australia, with 326,386 systems installed just last year. Compare that to NZ’s total of 62,707, and you might get a little depressed.
But don’t forget, Australia are the ‘lucky country’ that has long capitalised on its natural resources for decades. With renewable energy comprising only about 40% of their energy mix, there has been a significant need to transition away from fossil fuels. One of their key strategies has been to heavily incentivise solar power, and they surely have had the financial means to do so.
What are the main market forces in New Zealand?
Increasing power bills:
Electricity prices in New Zealand have seen modest increases year on year, averaging 3% annually. But more New Zealanders are noticing their power bills rising this year and further price hikes are expected next year. According to Stuff "Mercury said its increases had come into effect on April 1, with the typical range being a 5% to 8% increase for most customers."
Although we're going through a rough patch economically, people are able to justify the purchase of a solar power system as it is a way to combat ever-increasing power bills.
Climate related events:
Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023, which wreaked havoc in the upper North Island of New Zealand, showcased how solar and batteries can make a huge difference during blackouts caused by severe weather events. Not only can these systems help people continue life as usual in their households after the event, but the ability to communicate with the outside world is extremely necessary. I compiled some remarkable stories from Hawkes Bay residents last year—worth a read.
What's driving the utility scale solar farm gold rush?
New Zealand is in the early stages of gold rush, as developers scramble to secure prime locations for large solar farms ranging from tens to hundreds of megawatts in size.
As of 2024, New Zealand has eight operational solar farms, with 40 more in various stages of development.
These ambitious projects are fueling a dramatic surge in the nation’s solar capacity, which has doubled over the past two years. From 224 MW in June 2022 to over 447 MW today, solar farms are the driving force behind this explosive growth.
What’s driving this solar gold rush? The cost of solar power has continued to fall, making utility-scale solar the cheapest form of new energy generation. This decrease in cost, combined with a projected 35.3% to 82.0% increase in electricity demand in New Zealand by 2025 (according to MBIE), has created a tipping point for utility-scale solar power.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite the positive trends, the solar power market in New Zealand faces several challenges, including:
- The need for improved infrastructure to support the integration of solar energy into the national grid.
- Waiting for the Government to update solar standards.
- Making the benefits of solar and batteries accessible to everyone, not just through financial incentives but also through flexibility services.
Looking Ahead
The future of solar power in New Zealand is promising, with the industry poised for sustainable growth. Technological advancements, increasing awareness of the benefits of solar and battery storage, rising grid power costs, and a growing commitment to addressing climate change are driving market expansion. I anticipate that this growth will increasingly resemble an exponential curve.
Thank you to the EA for collecting the data used in this article.